Last big revolution in home phones was 25 years ago, with mobile handset. Digital home phones are coming as part of convergence of networks, applications, and content.
Etiquette is changing. Kids now think it’s okay to break up via text message.
Convergence of markets: telco and cable, wireless and wireline, network operators v. application providers v. device providers.
Landline has inherent advantage over wireless. “You can’t even hear an anvil drop.”
Convergence of geography. Wireless began place-shifting voice. Now you can do same with video using SlingBox.
Simplicity rules, and simplicity causes revolutions. This is why Apple has succeeded with its walled garden, iTunes, with its very high walls.
“It is never safe to look into the future with eyes of fear.” – E. H. Harriman
Four screens will be important: home phone, mobile device (not necessarily wireless), PC, TV. The PC will be the fulcrum for rest.
Convergence of business and consumer, creation of “Prosumer.” Pricing parity will come between business and nonbusiness purchasers.
Wireline operates at completely different speed than wireless. We like to think of wireless as a sleeping bag. Good to have in the woods. But when you get back home, you’ve got that great comfortable bed. Throw the wireless phone in the closet and switch to faster land line.
Typical Barnes and Nobles store carries 130,000 titles. More than half of Amazon’s book sales come from outside its top 130,000 titles. Good example of the long tail. Same thing is coming in Video. New content will be created for this long tail. The Internet will change video.
Divergence between rural and urban. Rural will not have Verizon FIOS super-fast Internet. Without a subsidy, broadband is not likely to move deeply into rural America.
“In difficult times, the boldest plans are the safest.” Titus Livy.
I checked Embarq service availability and am disappointed to see it’s not offered yet in Colorado or Massachusetts. But you can get it in Wyoming!